May material bottlenecks hamper the global energy transition towards the 1.5 °C target?

Potentially scarce materials play an important role in many current and emerging technologies needed for a sustainable energy mobility system. This paper examines the global demand 25 potentially that would result from system is compatible with 1.5 °C target. It further analyses risk short- mid-term material shortages. To determine requirements, extensive prospective database was built up on specific of these key technologies. A second describes potential development sub-technology market shares within technology class. flow analysis model used to annual cumulative requirements as well recycling underlying scenario. The results show production all has increase, some cases significantly, short period time meet transportation In addition, significantly exceeds reserves even resources. particular, lithium (demand increase (DI) more than factor 10, cumulated (CD) 2), cobalt (DI/CD: <7/<3), nickel (CD/DI: <2.4/<1.4) batteries, dysprosium (DI < 8) neodymium 1.5) (for permanent magnets (wind turbines electric motors), iridium 2.9) platinum 1.8) (fuel cells, electrolyzers) are affected. construction battery fuel cell vehicles thus represents major driver demand. Depending material, shortages can be reduced or delayed by substitution, recycling, lifetime extension, increased efficiency, smaller future vehicle stock, but not entirely avoided. Hence, it expected bottlenecks will increasing prices, at least medium term. • Defossilisation transport depends availability minerals. Material may occur particular Li, Co, Ni, Dy, Nd, Ir. Shortages appropriate measures, databases which based made available public use.